by Harald Neuber, editor of the German news journal Telepolis, 7/22
www.indybay.org
Even if some Democrats are likely to be relieved that the ailing Biden is no longer in the race, Harris’ nomination is by no means certain. Other Democratic candidates are likely to come forward in the coming weeks. Names such as Secretary Buttigieg, Governor Newsom from California and Senator Elizabeth Warren are being discussed…The road to the White House is long and rocky for Harris.
US election: Why Joe Biden’s withdrawal is unlikely to prevent Donald Trump’s re-election
by Harald Neuber
[This article posted on 7/22/2024 is translated from the German on the Internet, https://www.telepolis.de/features/US-Wahl-Warum-Joe-Bidens-Rueckzug-eine-Wiederwahl-von-Donald-Trump-wohl-nicht-verhindern-wird-9808656.html.]
Biden is giving up: Compulsion or strategy? Are Democrats facing a historic defeat? And what contribution is Kamala Harris making? A Telepolis editorial.
Basically, it was only a matter of time, now the decision has been made: The controversial and much ridiculed Joe Biden is withdrawing from the election campaign. Good for him and good for the Democrats. Whether it is good for the USA and the world remains to be seen. Doubts are justified.
Biden surprisingly announced on Sunday that he was withdrawing his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election. The 81-year-old Democrat explained in a social media post that it was “in the best interests of my party and the country” to forgo another candidacy and instead support Vice President Kamala Harris. Whether and to what extent this decision was actually made by Biden is questionable.
The 81-year-old’s withdrawal comes after weeks of pressure from Biden’s own camp. Especially after his disastrous performance in the first TV debate against former President Donald Trump at the end of June, more and more voices expressed doubts about Biden’s mental and physical fitness. Even close allies and donors urged the president to withdraw and pleaded for a last-minute change.
And so the first legend is born: Biden has withdrawn from the candidacy himself. In fact, he seems to have been forced to take this step. Even former US President Barack Obama, who held the office twice and is therefore not allowed to run again, recently refused to support him. Other close supporters also withdrew their allegiance to him last week. It was a small palace revolt among the Democrats, driven by panic in the polls.
With Biden’s withdrawal, Vice President Harris is now moving into the spotlight. The 58-year-old would be the first black female presidential candidate of either of the two major parties. However, Harris has also struggled with low approval ratings in the past. Many voters consider her too inexperienced.
Attacks from Republicans
The Republicans are already using the unexpected change in the Democratic camp to launch attacks. Former President Trump, who was nominated by his party, declared that Biden was never suitable for the presidency. Other Republicans even called for Biden’s immediate resignation.
However, even if some Democrats are likely to be relieved that the ailing Biden is no longer in the race, Harris’ nomination is by no means certain. Other Democratic candidates are likely to come forward in the coming weeks. Names such as Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Governor Gavin Newsom from California and Senator Elizabeth Warren are already being discussed.
So the road to the White House is still long and rocky for Harris. She not only has to unite her own party behind her, but also convince undecided and more conservative voters in the center. No easy task given the deep divisions in the country. What’s more, the wrangling over the Democratic candidacy means that more valuable time is being lost.
At least Harris can count on the support of influential party figures such as the Clintons and Barack Obama. And she has the advantage of having the necessary name recognition and experience as the incumbent Vice President. However, she must also distance herself from Biden’s sometimes unpopular policies.
Democrats must win back voters
The immigrant electorate in the USA in particular had turned away from Biden. One of the main reasons: his Middle East policy. It is questionable whether Harris, as the current vice president, can break away from this.
If Harris wins the primaries and runs against Trump in November, it would be a historic success. Never before has a woman – and a woman of color at that – been elected President of the United States.
At the same time, the expectations of a President Harris would be enormous. She would not only have to heal the wounds of the Trump era, but also tackle the major challenges of our time: Climate change, social inequality, racism. No president before her would have a more difficult legacy to take on.
Uncertain future for the Democrats
If Harris fails and Trump returns to the White House, it would be a major blow for the Democrats. Not only would they lose to the controversial Republican for the second time in a row, but they would also have to fundamentally question themselves. Has the party lost touch with the majority of Americans? Does it need a radical change of course?
Because the Democrats have so far failed to do so in the face of impending doom. Biden is also a product of the party’s internal structures. He was built up and defended for a long time despite obvious signs of decay.
Yet he already had recognizable lapses at the beginning of his presidency. These health problems had recently reached an almost unbearable level. Biden was barely able to walk alone, climb stairs or recite just a few sentences with concentration and without mistakes. The fact that it could come to this raises fundamental questions about the political ability of the second largest party in the United States of America.
Assessments of Harris’ chances vary. According to a poll by Economist/YouGov, Biden would lose to Trump with 41 to 43 percent, while Harris would fare slightly worse with 39 to 44 percent. However, an analysis by Five Thirty Eight shows that Harris’ chances against Biden are slightly better at 38 percent to 35 percent.
According to the Reuters/Ipsos poll, even Michelle Obama would do better against Trump than Harris, Biden and other potential successors, at 50 to 39 percent.
Such individual poll results could go on and on. The fact is, however, that Harris is currently ahead of Trump in hardly any important poll. With the probable change to the current vice president, the Democrats are in danger of jumping from the frying pan into the fire.